Australian homeowners may soon be facing yet another financial squeeze, with the Commonwealth Bank signalling that an interest rate hike 2026 as early as February is now the most likely scenario. If confirmed, it would mark the 14th rate rise since 2022, a sobering reminder that the fight against inflation is far from over.
Disclaimer: All the data here is sourced from: realestate.com.au
According to CBA’s December 2025 Wage and Labour Insights report, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to lift the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points at its February 3 meeting. While the decision is not locked in, it will hinge heavily on the upcoming Q4 CPI data due on January 28. Despite some cooling in inflation, headline CPI remains at 3.4 per cent, still well above the RBA’s 2–3 per cent target band.
For mortgage holders, the impact would be immediate and tangible. Analysis from Canstar shows a typical $600,000 mortgage would see repayments rise by approximately $90 per month. Those with larger loans would feel even more pressure, with a $750,000 mortgage increasing by $112 per month and a $1 million loan jumping by around $150. For many families already grappling with school fees, summer energy bills, and lingering Christmas credit card debt, this potential hike could stretch household budgets to breaking point.
Consumer Price Index results by month. Source: Canstar.
Wage growth, while easing slightly to 3.1 per cent annually, hasn’t slowed enough to change the banks’ outlook. Meanwhile, the labour market remains relatively resilient, with 23,000 jobs added in December and quarterly wage growth holding steady at 0.8 per cent. Consumer confidence has also edged higher, suggesting households are still spending, a factor that may keep inflationary pressures alive.
Not all signals are flashing red.
ANZ economists point out that this is the weakest start to the year for consumer confidence in over 15 years, and inflation expectations have begun to ease. These mixed signals highlight just how finely balanced the RBA’s next move will be.
For property buyers and homeowners, the takeaway is clear: uncertainty is the new normal. Whether you’re considering entering the market, refinancing, or simply trying to manage rising repayments, informed decisions have never been more important. Understanding how interest rates, lending policy, and market conditions interact can make the difference between feeling overwhelmed and feeling in control.
That’s where community matters.
If you want real-world insights, trusted advice, and access to professionals who live and breathe property, join Property Buyers Australia on Facebook. It’s a growing community that connects buyers with experienced real estate professionals, mortgage specialists, and industry experts. They are all focused on helping Australians navigate the property market with confidence.
In times like these, the right information and the right people can be your biggest advantage.
